John Gillen speaks with Transform Ventures CEO and BitAngels founder Michael Terpin about whether Bitcoin’s move toward $79,000 confirms a bottom. Terpin assigns an 80% probability that the bear market has ended, while warning that Bitcoin could retrace toward $70,000 or the $60,000s unless it secures a stronger weekly close.
Terpin explains his four-seasons framework for Bitcoin, built around halvings, supply shocks, fear and greed, and recurring periods of expansion and capitulation. He argues that an earlier-than-expected low would not invalidate the cycle thesis, but could reflect the growing share of ETF and off-chain trading.
The discussion also covers what would constitute a true Bitcoin supercycle and why altcoins require a different playbook. Terpin views altcoin performance as narrative-driven, with leadership shifting between themes such as DeFi, NFTs, AI, real-world assets, decentralized exchanges, privacy coins, and memecoins.
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